Economic Indicators

09：30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev+0.3%
13：30  France GDP (QoQ) (Q1)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev+0.1%
13：30 France GDP (YoY) (Q1) ‧Fcst+0.9%‧Prev+0.7%
14：00 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev-0.2%
14：00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar)‧Fcst-3.8%‧Prev-4.9%
14：00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)‧Fcst+1.5%‧Prev-1.9%
14：00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)‧Prev-2.7%
14：45 France HICP (YoY) (Apr)‧Fcst+2.2%‧Prev+2.4%
15：00 Swiss KOF Leading Indicators (Apr)    ‧Fcst102.0‧Prev101.5
15：55 Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Apr)‧Prev2.769M
15：55 Germany Unemployment Rate (Apr)‧Fcst5.9%‧Prev5.9%
15：55 Germany Unemployment (Apr)‧Prev2.719M
15：55 Germany Unemployment Change (Apr)‧Fcst9K‧Prev4K
16：00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1) ‧Fcst+0.1%‧Prev-0.3%
16：00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Q1) ‧Fcst-0.8%‧Prev-0.4%
16：00 Italy GDP (QoQ) (Q1)‧Fcst+0.1%‧Prev+0.2%
16：00 Italy GDP (YoY) (Q1) ‧Fcst+0.3%‧Prev+0.6%
16：30 UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar)‧Fcst1.500B‧Prev1.378B
16：30 UK Mortgage Lending (Mar)‧Fcst1.50B‧Prev1.51B
16：30 UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar)‧Fcst61,500‧Prev60,383
16：30 UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Mar)‧Prev+0.5%
17：00 EZ CPI (YoY) (Apr)‧Fcst+2.4%‧Prev+2.4%
17：00 EZ HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr)‧Fcst+2.9%‧Prev+3.1%
17：00 EZ GDP (YoY) (Q1)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev+0.1%
17：00 EZ GDP (QoQ) (Q1)‧Fcst+0.2%‧Prev+0.0%
20：30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1)‧Fcst+1.0%‧Prev+0.9%
20：30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb)‧Fcst+0.3%‧Prev+0.6%
21：00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)‧Prev-0.1%
21：00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Feb)‧Prev+6.3%
21：00 US House Price Index (Feb)‧Prev417.5
21：00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Feb)‧Fcst+0.1%‧Prev+0.1%
21：00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb)‧Prev-0.1%
21：00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb)‧Fcst+6.7%‧Prev+6.6%
21：45 US Chicago PMI (Apr)‧Fcst45.0‧Prev41.4
22：00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)‧Fcst104.0‧Prev104.7
 

XAU - Gold prices are consolidating at low levels ahead of the U.S. interest rate meeting on Wednesday's night

Gold was little changed on Monday as market focus turned to Wednesday night's Federal Reserve policy meeting and Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for clues on the trajectory of the Fed's interest rates. Given recent signs that U.S. inflation continues to rise and economic growth is resilient, the Fed is expected to be in no rush to cut interest rates, and the market has fully priced in this view. The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from April 30 to May 1 and will announce its policy decision at 2 o'clock late Wednesday night. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30. It is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%; after price increases accelerated in the first three months of this year, the current statement that inflation is still high may still appear in the policy statement. Data released by the United States last Friday showed that the PCE price index increased by 2.7% year-on-year in March, higher than the 2.5% increase in February. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, which was higher than the 2.5% increase in February. Monthly gains were flat.

In terms of technical trends, the current resistance will first refer to the 10-day moving average. In the past two days, the price has also stopped below this indicator. The 10-day moving average is currently located at $2344. The largest resistance levels are expected to be $2375 and $2400, and the next level will be forecasted at $2430. However, as both the RSI and the stochastic index show preliminary signs of decline, and the 5-day moving average has already broken below the 10-day moving average to form a negative cross, the short-term trend of gold prices is expected to remain under pressure, and the lowest support in the past five trading days has been close to 25-day moving average, so the current 25-day moving average position of $2318 will be a supporting level. At the same time, it should also be noted that this area also happens to be the position of the rising trend line extending from February, so once the position is broken, it may trigger a considerable adjustment. Calculated based on the cumulative increase since mid-March, the 38.2% correction range is at 2322. The 50% correction range is seen at $2289, which is very close to the low hit last Tuesday. The expansion range to 61.8% is $2254. The subsequent key supports are expected to be $2,228 and $2,200.

London Gold April 30
Forecast early forecast: 2328 – 2341
Resistance 2348 – 2354 – 2361/2374
Support 2321 – 2314 – 2308/2294

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
April 22 – 831.91 tons
April 23 – 833.63 tons
April 24 – 833.63 tons
April 25 – 834.78 tons
April 26 – 832.19 tons
April 29 – 832.19 tons

29/4 AM London Gold Fix: $2337.6
29/4 PM London Gold Fix: $2333.55

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team