EUR —Key Levels; Wait-and-See Ahead of U.S.-Iran Deal Prospects

According to sources, at a White House war-room meeting on Friday, Trump indicated he is leaning toward accepting the agreement, but asked for changes to the draft regarding Iran's nuclear program. The current memorandum of understanding contains only Iran's “commitment" not to pursue nuclear weapons, without specifying concrete concessions. The memo states there will be a 60-day negotiation window for Iran's nuclear commitments and the easing of US sanctions. The first agenda item is how to deal with Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and to limit further enrichment activities.

The report also says that a second source added Trump wants to adjust some wording related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US official noted Trump was told it would take Iran about three days to respond.

On Sunday, U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said that if Iran fails to reach an agreement with the U.S., the U.S. is prepared to restart attacks on Iran.

EUR/USD: Technical Levels to Watch, based on what technical charts show, the key level to watch is 1.1660—the neckline of a prior double-top pattern and also around the 50-day moving average. For now, the euro has been unable to break further upward on multiple days last week. If the euro can regain and hold above this zone, it could suggest a stabilizing/mean-reversion trend.

Subsequent resistance levels are expected at 1.1720 and 1.18, and then 1.20 would be the next major resistance.

Conversely, if the euro cannot break through, it could trigger downward pressure. The key support to watch is 1.16—if this level is lost, a new round of selling pressure could begin. After that, support is expected at 1.15. Further key reference levels include the March low at 1.1410 and the August 2025 low at 1.1391. Be careful: if this zone is also broken, it would undermine a range that has held for nearly a year, potentially triggering a more destructive decline. The next target could be 1.12.

Forecast Range (Expected Trading Range)

• Resistance: 1.1660* – 1.1720 – 1.1800** – 1.2000
• Support: 1.1600* – 1.1500 – 1.1390* – 1.1200

News Summary

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• Germany April import price index (YoY): +5.3%
• Germany April import price index (MoM): +1.2%
• France Q1 non-farm employment change (QoQ): +0.0%
• France May CPI (YoY) preliminary: +2.8%; (MoM) preliminary: +0.1%
• France April consumer spending (MoM): -0.5%
• France Q1 GDP (QoQ): -0.1%
• Germany April unemployment rate: 6.3%
• Germany April number of unemployed: down 12,000

Key Focus:

Monday

• Germany April retail sales (14:00)
• Eurozone May manufacturing PMI (16:00)
• Eurozone April unemployment rate (17:00)

Tuesday

• Eurozone May HICP / CPI (17:00)

Wednesday

• Eurozone May services & composite PMI (16:00)
• Eurozone April PPI (17:00)

Thursday

• Eurozone April retail sales (18:00)

Friday

• Eurozone Q1 employment change (17:00)
• Eurozone Q1 GDP (17:00)

Any questions? contact our professional analysis team